Prediction Markets Precarious Future Creates Diverging Opinions Odds Shark
The precarious legal position of prediction markets is causing giant sportsbooks to feign caution on the future of the medium, while other companies like Coinbase are all in.
+ Monitoring: FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are all monitoring the prediction market industry and could jump in at any time.
+ Coinbase: Crypto-exchange platform Coinbase is ignoring the sportsbooks’ caution and is ready to jump into prediction markets.
+ Source: The source of the hesitation from sportsbooks is the tenuous legal position that prediction markets find themselves in.
In separate second-quarter earnings calls, the CEO’s of Flutter, FanDuel’s parent company, and DraftKings both mentioned the possibility of their respective companies entering the prediction market space.
Peter Jackson (Flutter) mentioned the company remains cautious towards prediction markets but is in a solid position should it eventually enter the market, thanks to the brand BetFair Exchange, which it also owns.
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“via BetFair Exchange shared similar characteristics with events contracts, and this will help inform our views. We’re closely monitoring regulatory development, and are assessing opportunities and potential participation strategies this may present for FanDuel.” -Peter Jackson, CEO Flutter |
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Jason Robins (DraftKings) may have expressed caution, but the company is seemingly ready to take the first step in entering the prediction market space. DraftKings may acquire RailBird Exchange, which holds a designated contract market (DCM) license from the Commodity Futures Trade Commission (CFTC).
BetMGM also shares both sportsbook giants’ trepidation in entering the prediction market too soon. CEO Adam Greenblatt said the company won’t be caught “flat-footed” by being the first to enter the market
CoinBase Jumps Into The Fray
Meanwhile, Coinbase has decided it’s going all in on prediction markets. Vice-President of Product Max Branzburg told CNBC recently that Coinbase plans to become an “everything exchange”, where you can exchange stocks, crypto, and prediction market contracts with crypto.
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“Everything you want to trade, in a one-stop shop, on-chain. … We’re bringing all assets onchain — stocks, prediction markets, and more.” -Max Branzburg, Coinbase |
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The company is planning a “gradual international rollout” per Branzburg in the coming months. Coinbase’s announcement is fresh off the Securities and Exchange Commission’s launch of “Project Crypto”. The project’s goal is to allow crypto-based trading.
Prediction Market Growth Stalls
The hesitation from brands like FanDuel and DraftKings stems from the precarious legal position of prediction markets in the US. State gaming authorities believe prediction markets are illegally sidestepping their gaming laws. And that argument recently received a positive nod in Maryland.
A court in Maryland ruled Kalshi could not get an injunction against the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission’s (MLGCC) cease-and-desist letter. The decision allows the MLGCC to stop Kalshi and any other prediction market from offering event contracts in the Old Line State.
That decision could easily spill over to New Jersey and Nevada, where Kalshi has similar open court cases. Not to mention the potential for this decision to reach every other state in the Union. Such a result could certainly cool the explosive growth in the prediction market space that has seen $2 billion in sports contract trading volume on Kalshi’s platform alone in less than six months.
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